CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-05-23T07:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-05-23T07:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31098/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely a small filament eruption centered near S12E03 which begins to lift-off around 2024-05-23T06:45Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. This eruption appears to deflect towards the southeast as it leaves the solar disk/initial source location. Post eruptive arcades begin to from in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery around 07:20Z. This event partially overlaps with CME: 2024-05-23T06:48Z. Possible arrival signature: Characterized by a minor amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 3nT at 2024-05-26T14:35Z to 8nT at 20:13Z. There are a few minor increases in solar wind speed prior to the amplification magnetic field components, most notably an increase from ~350 km/s at 11:08Z to ~450 km/s at 13:05Z. There are no significant increases in temperature or density observed, beyond an increase in density to 8 N/cm^3 at 2024-05-27T03:31Z. An alternative arrival signature could be the one starting at 2024-05-27T02:42Z when it looks like the ICME crossed the spacecraft, with a slight descending profile in the plasma and magnetic field indicating a glancing blow and the possible start of the magnetic cloud around 06:12Z (according to Carlos Perez Alanis, LASSOS team).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-26T14:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-27T01:30Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.5
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -73.58 hour(s)
Difference: -10.92 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-05-29T16:10Z
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